Anybody is talking well-nigh a half dozen-figure Bitcoin (BTC) price at present that the digital asset has broken out of its multi-calendar month downtrend and confirmed that a bullish trend is in play.

If Bitcoin happens to enter a parabolic move toward $110,000, that would finally match PlanB's Stock-to-Menstruum model prediction. Co-ordinate to the pseudonymous analyst, the scarcity and valuation of gold and other precious metals and "Elon Musk's free energy FUD and Prc's mining crackdown" are a few of the factors responsible for the past five months of l% or higher inaccuracy in the model.

Bulls' hopes mostly cling to an exchange-traded fund being approved past the United states Securities and Substitution Commission. Currently, there are multiple requests awaiting review between Oct. 18 and Nov. 1, but the regulator could postpone its final decision.

October. 15'due south $830 million options death was largely impacted by the 20% toll rally initiated on October. 4, which most probable eliminated 92% of the put (sell) options.

Bitcoin price on Coinbase in USD. Source: TradingView

The backwash of Prc's mining crackdown was an important result that might accept fueled investor sentiment, and research shows the U.South. accounting for 35.4% of the Bitcoin hash rate.

Furthermore, equally Cointelegraph reported, the U.S. states of Texas and Ohio are besides expected to receive additional large-calibration Bitcoin mining centers, which will effectively heave the U.South. crypto market place share fifty-fifty college.

The Oct. 8 death was profitable for bulls

Following last calendar week'south $370 million estimated net profit from the BTC options death, bulls had more firepower, and this is axiomatic in this Friday's $820 one thousand thousand death. This advantage explains why the call (buy) options open interest is 43% larger than the neutral-to-bearish put options.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 15. Source: Bybt

As the above data shows, bears placed $335 million in bets for Friday's expiry, just it appears that they were caught past surprise, equally 92% of the put (sell) options are likely to get worthless.

In other words, if Bitcoin remains higher up $56,000 on Oct. 15, merely $36 million worth of neutral-to-surly put options will be activated on Friday's 8:00 am UTC decease.

Bulls have a reason to push button BTC price above $58,000

Below are the four likeliest scenarios for Oct. 15's death. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of telephone call (purchase) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:

  • Betwixt $52,000 and $54,000: iii,140 calls vs. 2,110 puts. The net result is $55 meg favoring the telephone call (bull) instruments.
  • Between $54,000 and $56,000: 3,700 calls vs. i,240 puts. The net result is $130 million favoring the call (balderdash) instruments.
  • Betwixt $56,000 and $58,000: 4,850 calls vs. 680 puts. The cyberspace result is $235 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Above $58,000: half dozen,230 calls vs. 190 puts. The internet result is complete authorisation, with bulls profiting $350 million.

This raw judge considers call options being exclusively used in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. Yet, investors might have used a more complex strategy that typically involves different expiry dates.

Bears need a vii% cost correction to reduce their loss

In every scenario, bulls take absolute control of this Friday's expiry, and in that location are a scattering of reasons for them to continue the cost in a higher place $56,000. On the other hand, bears need a seven% negative motion beneath $54,000 to avoid a loss of $235 meg or higher.

Even so, traders must consider that during bull runs, the amount of effort a seller needs to pressure the price is immense and usually ineffective. Analytics signal to a considerable reward from call (purchase) options, fueling fifty-fifty more bullish bets next week.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do non necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves take chances. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.